Israel threatened a retaliation, and it came before dawn on Friday morning.
Early indications suggest it was a single strike and on a deliberately chosen target – if that is the case, then this doesn’t appear to be the devastating response the Israeli war cabinet had warned of.
There have been further reports of explosions heard in Iraq and Syria, but as yet to evidence of impacts – those explosions could possibly have been sonic booms caused by Israeli jets breaking the sound barrier.
Middle East latest: Israel carries out operation in Iran, source says
There is an airbase outside Isfahan which is connected to Iran’s aircraft manufacturing industry – if this was the target then it appears to have been carefully chosen as a response to the drones flown at Israel on Saturday night: you fly drones at us, we take out the place they were built.
It certainly doesn’t appear to be an attack on Iran’s nuclear industry, which would have been far more serious.
The timing of the attack, around 4am in Iran, will probably have limited casualties too, and if so limit what Iran does next.
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Reports that Iran shot missiles out of the sky should be treated with some scepticism.
On Saturday night Iran flew more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel: most were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace and the ones that got through caused minimal damage to an airbase.
If Israel has successfully flown F35 stealth jets into Iranian airspace, then it’s rather humiliating for the Iranian military and is a message from Israel that they can do what Iran cannot.
Iranian leaders had threatened an immediate and strong response to any Israeli attack – we’ll see.
Watch for any sign that Iran implicates the US in the strikes – that might signal their intent to label US bases in Iraq and Syria as legitimate targets for any response.
Iran will of course be inclined to respond, but if this turns out to be a single strike, at a target connected to Iran’s attacks, and with limited civilian harm, then I don’t think Tehran will have reason, desire or justification to escalate.
