We’re halfway through summer – and it looks like the UK is finally in for some sun.
A mini-heatwave is heading to the UK in time for the weekend.
But forecasters have already warned the warmth will be shortlived.
So should you pack down the barbecue and put away the fan at the end of the weekend?
Here’s what could be coming.
A mini-heatwave – and then what?
England and Wales will heat up as the weekend approaches, and temperatures could peak around 30C (86F) on Friday and Saturday in southern parts of the UK.
It will be warm at night too, with the chance of tropical nights in southeast England – which happens when the air temperature doesn’t fall below 20C (68F).
But it’s bad news for those hoping to enjoy the start of the school holidays in the sun.
Rain moving through the north and west will bring cooler conditions to all parts by Sunday, Sky News meteorologist Dr Chris England says.
The rest of the following week is looking changeable, with temperatures around average and spells of rain moving across from the west.
“The rain probably won’t amount to much in the southeast,” he adds.
“There’s just a small chance of a brief warm spell there, bringing a risk of thunderstorms.”
After that, things look a bit more settled towards the end of the month, with rain and showers mainly in the north-west.
However, there will still be a risk of thunderstorms in the southeast at times.
Stephen Dixon, Met Office spokesperson, tells Sky News there is a “chance of some drier and more settled interludes of weather through next week”.
However, he cautions that “it’s still a changeable pattern of weather” and we “will likely see shifts between showery rain and warmer spells”.
So is August our last of summer weather?
August could bring settled weather – but it could go the other way.
Dr Chris England says: “What indications there are suggest fairly finely balanced between unsettled and settled.”
The southeast has the highest chance of good weather, he says.
“Higher than average temperatures seem a little more likely than not, and there’s an increased chance of some brief hot spells, but it’s fairly finely balanced.
“There’s a slight bias towards warmer than average as well, with brief hot spells, but it’s far from clear-cut.”
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The Met Office’s forecast for the first two weeks of August says there is a “slightly increased chance of more settled spells of weather”.
“However, there is still a substantial chance of other weather types too, with more changeable periods also likely.”
Mr Dixon adds: “Some models suggest a chance of more settled and warm weather in early August, though much will depend on the meteorological conditions closer to the time.”
A cooler than average summer so far
To anyone who’s tried and failed to pack away their winter jumpers, it won’t come as a surprise to learn this summer has been colder than average.
As of mid-July, the UK’s mean temperature for the summer stands at 13.04C – that’s 1.55C cooler than the long-term meteorological average for summer.
The first half of July has also brought more rain, after a June that was both cooler and drier than average, bringing rainfall totals for the season up.
That makes this summer as a whole “actually around average for rainfall”, Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle says – although she acknowledges “it may not feel it at the moment”.
The UK has already recorded 71% of its average rainfall for the whole of July, when normally at this point in the month you would expect to have had 48% of the average rainfall.
The recipe for warm weather
The position of the jet stream is often the driving force behind the weather we experience in the UK, Met Office deputy chief meteorologist David Hayter explains.
It only takes a small shift in the position of the jet stream to create “big differences in the weather we experience on the ground”, he says.
“In recent weeks, the jet stream has been either directed towards the UK, or shifted further south, which has predominantly brought cooler air over the UK, with frequent incursions of some unseasonable winds and rain.
“For warm weather in the UK in summer, you’d tend to see the jet stream shifted further north, which allows the possibility of warmer air to drift over the UK from the south, though this isn’t always the case.
“Unfortunately for those who like the warmth, we have only had brief periods where this pattern has been present in summer so far.”
