Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 4-point lead over his GOP opponent in Ohio, according to a new poll out Thursday morning. But the details underscore just how challenging it will be for the vulnerable Democrat to overcome his state’s Republican lean to clinch a fourth term.
The poll, commissioned by AARP and conducted by the bipartisan team of Impact Research (D) and Fabrizio Ward (R), shows Brown leading Republican nominee Bernie Moreno, 46 percent to 42 percent, with 12 percent choosing another candidate or undecided. But the same poll gives former President Donald Trump a 9-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, 48 percent to 39 percent.
So how is Brown outrunning the top of the ticket? He has a double-digit lead among independents and is winning 14 percent of Republicans — while Harris is tied with Trump among independents and captures only 7 percent of Republicans.
That’s likely the kind of overperformance he’ll need to beat Moreno in Ohio, which has fallen off the Electoral College battlefield after Trump’s back-to-back 8-point victories there in 2016 and 2020. But only GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has managed to win a Senate race in a state where her party’s presidential nominee lost over the past two presidential cycles, so Brown’s numbers could be difficult to sustain.
