There are few experts in the region who are not anticipating a response to the back-to-back assassination strikes killing high-ranking figures in Hamas and Hezbollah.
It seems inevitable after twin audacious attacks in two capitals – one admitted by the Israeli authorities, the second not but widely blamed on them.
The tens of thousands who have streamed onto the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran to mourn the killing of Hamas leader and the group’s chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh are a testament to how his killing is viewed in this part of the world.
Significant numbers also turned out in Beirut to the funeral of the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr who was killed in a strike in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahieh, a heavily populated residential area but also a bastion for Hezbollah.
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“Hezbollah control all this area,” one resident told me. “They provide the security, even run the hospitals. We get nothing from the government.”
But what are the likely options and how is the so-called Axis of Resistance likely to respond?
It is a loose umbrella group of militant organisations headed and funded in varying degrees by Iran but spread across the Middle East region including the powerful Lebanese group Hezbollah, plus extremist militant fighting groups in Iraq, Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
Amal Saad is one of the world’s leading experts on Hezbollah. The Lebanese academic, who is also a senior lecturer in international politics at Cardiff University, believes Hezbollah – and Iran – see no option but to respond to the twin attacks.
“The thinking is if Hezbollah does not respond, if it sits on its hands and doesn’t respond in a significant way that crosses previous thresholds, then we will almost certainly see a case of Israel bombing and striking targets in Dahieh. It will become a weekly event.
“The city centre of Beirut might be next. It will open up and expand the battlefield regardless. Dahieh will become a new battle arena. It will extend from the south of Lebanon to Dahieh.”
Hezbollah and the Israeli military have been exchanging thousands of rocket strikes in cross-border attacks since 8 October when Hezbollah mounted attacks on Israel which it said were in solidarity with its Hamas allies fighting against Israel in Gaza.
Along with the rest of the Axis partners, the militant groups claim their actions are dependent on a ceasefire in Gaza.
While Israel has put its citizens on high alert for retaliatory action, Lebanon too appears to be preparing for the worst.
Sleiman Haroun, the head of Lebanon’s hospital syndicate, told the Lebanese Channel MTV it had made preparations in all of the country’s hospitals for a large-scale emergency to try to be ready to take in wounded or dead in case a serious security situation develops.
“We have medical equipment to last two to three months,” he said during a live interview.
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The Reuters news agency is reporting that Iran has called its proxy groups to Tehran for a meeting to discuss how best to retaliate against Israel.
Amal Saad went on: “I think that’s what Hezbollah is thinking (re retaliation) and I think it is a very likely scenario…I think it’s a realistic one that Israel will be emboldened to continue with this policy of taking out resistance leaders and commanders unless there is action and Israel definitely has the intelligence technology to do that… we’ve seen that now.”
Alex Crawford reports from Beirut with cameraman Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producers Jihad Jneid and Hwaida Saad.
