There’s a great power rivalry playing out in the Pacific, and it stretches across vast swathes of ocean and small island countries.
The competition is between China and the West, which is represented by the US, Australia, New Zealand and France.
This week the leaders of 18 Pacific Island countries have met in Tonga, wearing matching tropical island shirts and surrounded by turquoise water. It looks like a holiday postcard.
But the region is beset by drastic and complicated problems: climate change, rising sea levels, a brain drain as young people leave to live in New Zealand and Australia, and now battle for influence in the Pacific.
The high-profile guest list included United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
China’s special envoy to the region, Qian Bo, also attended.
The region has traditionally been inside the geopolitical sphere of the US and its allies, in particular Australia.
But China is rivalling that, muscling in with incentives of development aid, security and training.
It comes with strings attached, pressuring countries to cut ties with the self-governed island of Taiwan, which China regards as its own territory.
Three countries, Palau, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu maintain relations with Taiwan rather than Beijing, while the Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Nauru switched recognition to China in recent years.
China wants to project its political and naval power far beyond the East China Sea and South China Sea, where it’s in direct competition with its neighbours.
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China and Philippines come to blows
Last week ships from China and the Philippines came to blows near the disputed atoll of Sabina Shoal, off the west coast of the Philippines, with the vessels from both countries colliding at sea.
The Philippines says China’s actions were “patently illegal”. China’s state-run media the Global Times says China’s measures have been “mild and restrained.”
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The tension increased another notch this week after the US suggested it would consider the possibility of escorting ships from the Philippines in the South China Sea. The two countries have a mutual defence treaty.
Further north, relations between Japan and China have also been further strained after Japan accused China of sending a military intelligence-gathering aircraft into its territorial airspace in the East China Sea on Monday.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said they had “no intention of invading the airspace of any country”.
Australia pivots to Pacific as China watches on
Back in Tonga, Australia’s pivot to the Pacific is in plain sight. It’s offered to fund a regional policing plan with a multinational crisis reaction force. Pacific Island states are backing it.
China is watching on. Every move is a strategic play for power in the Pacific.
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There’s no clear winner.
These tiny island countries are stuck in the middle of it all, but they have agency and, increasingly, clout. Which side will they choose?
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Loyalty can be swayed and sometimes bought. Perhaps they will choose the highest bidder.
