Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.
While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.
More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.
The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.
According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.
A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.
But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.
Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.
There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.
At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.
Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.
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Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government
More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.
Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.
The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.
In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.
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More in Common used the MRP technique, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.
‘Uncertain future’
The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.
The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.
If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.
The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War, a Sky News analysis has found.
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However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.
And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.
