The Doomsday Clock has been moved closer to midnight than ever before – symbolising that we are edging towards a global catastrophe.
The clock’s new time of 89 seconds to midnight was announced on 28 January, moving one second closer than where it had remained for the previous two years.
But what does it actually mean?
A metaphor for the dangers facing humanity, the clock is updated based on perceptions about how close humans are to destroying the world – with midnight symbolising that point.
The countdown is agreed on by experts at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
What is the Doomsday Clock and how is it set?
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists first launched the initiative in response to the threat of nuclear war in the 1940s.
After the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the Second World War, members of the Bulletin saw a need to help the public understand the scale of the nuclear threat to the existence of humanity.
To this day, the Bulletin’s science and security board, made up of nuclear and climate experts, set the time for the clock. The board has done this since 1973, when it took over from Eugene Rabinowitch, Bulletin editor and disarmament campaigner.
The clock moves closer to or further away from midnight based on how the experts on the board, plus academic colleagues and the Bulletin’s sponsors – which include 13 Nobel laureates – read the threats facing the world.
Why are scientists changing the time?
In 2023 the clock moved forward to 90 seconds due to the “mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine“. It was the first time the time had changed since 2020, when it was at 100 seconds.
Experts said the increase in nuclear threat, political tensions, climate change and illnesses made 2023 a “time of unprecedented danger”.
It stayed the same upon review the following year, when scientists said there was a “continuing unprecedented level of risk” from threats including war, the climate crisis and the “dramatic advance” of AI.
Now, the scientists say the shift from 90 to 89 seconds to midnight should serve as “a warning to all world leaders”.
Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, said: “The factors shaping this year’s decision – nuclear risk, climate change, the potential misuse of advances in biological science and a variety of other emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence – were not new in 2024.
“But we have seen insufficient progress in addressing the key challenges, and in many cases this is leading to increasingly negative and worrisome effects.
“Setting the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight is a warning to all world leaders.
“The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision or through accident and miscalculation.”
The warning comes after Russian president Vladimir Putin lowered his threshold for a nuclear strike in November last year, in what experts considered a thinly veiled warning to the West.
“Russian aggression in Ukraine, including repeated use of nuclear threats since the war began, has been disturbing,” Mr Holz said.
“In addition, Russia’s recent backtracking from important arms control treaties is an alarming sign of increasing nuclear risk.”
The scientist added that despite the current ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, “tensions in the Middle East including with Iran are still dangerously unstable”, and warned other “potential hotspots” like Taiwan and North Korea could cause “unpredictable and potentially devastating outcomes” through nuclear attacks.
AI ‘adding to dysfunction’
Mr Holz highlighted two major AI threats.
The first was its use on the battlefield, which he said is currently “tentative but worrisome” as it may start being applied to nuclear weapons.
The second, he said, was its risk to global security.
“AI is increasingly disrupting the world’s information ecosystem,” he added. “AI-fueled disinformation and misinformation will only add to this dysfunction.”
Finally, the scientists cited global warming, with last year being the hottest in recorded history, and the last 10 years being the hottest decade on record, according to scientists at the UN World Meteorological Organisation.
“While there has been impressive growth in wind and solar energy, the world is still falling short of what is necessary to prevent the worse aspects of climate change,” Mr Holz said.
The Doomsday Clock’s history
When it first began in 1947, the clock was set at seven minutes to midnight.
Artist Martyl Langsdorf came up with the idea of the clock and set the time to symbolise the dangers of nuclear confrontation, on the front cover of the Bulletin.
Since then it has been ticking away as political, nuclear and climate changes continued over the years, with experts revising the time up and down – mostly closer to midnight and its metaphor for total disaster.
There have been more reassuring years, though. In 1995 the clock was at 14 minutes to midnight, the safest reading in its history.
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And there were “positive strides” in some years, such as the Paris climate agreement.
Ever since 1998, however, the hands of the clock have been at less than 10 minutes to midnight.
In 2020, scientists moved the hands of the clock forward to 100 seconds to midnight after the breakout of COVID-19.
