It would be wrong to dismiss Donald Trump’s comments as “off the cuff”, as they so often are, because this is not the first time in recent days that he has proposed the removal of all Palestinians from Gaza.
It is an idea he has repeated and now embellished, an idea so egregious that it has left diplomats and politicians in the Middle East agog.
Trump latest: President says he wants US to ‘own’ Gaza
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How would it even work? The forced displacement (it certainly wouldn’t be willing) of two million people would be a clear breach of the Geneva Convention. It would be ethnic cleansing.
Gaza might be “hell” as Trump says, but ask any Gazan and they will tell you it is their home, however hellish.
Who would force them to leave? US troops down the barrel of a gun, pushed through a border into an unwilling Egypt or on to ships – and then to where? Just imagine.
Are Western allies really going to comply? Most of them still cling to the idea of a two-state solution.
It would require American soldiers on the ground in Gaza for well over a decade – will Congress authorise that? Unlikely.
And with what mandate? Gaza isn’t Israeli land to give. It isn’t American land to occupy. Trump cannot just “own” it any more than he can own Greenland unless he wants to take it by force. Gaza is not a piece of New York real estate.
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Trump’s Gaza solution betrays his ignorance of history
Trump says US will take over Gaza and Palestinians should relocate
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Trump either ignores or doesn’t understand moments of living history that many would rather forget – the “Nakba” which saw hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced during the 1948 war and haunts them to this day, and America’s humiliating failure at nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan.
But unrealistic or not, it is a political lifeline for Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under pressure to resume the fighting from the right-wing members of his coalition.
It is red meat to those extremist factions who have long wanted to resettle Gaza and will now seize on this.
For a time at least, it will distract from any serious and practical discussion of what happens next in Gaza, who governs it, who actually rebuilds it – discussion that is desperately overdue.
Unless this is all a deliberate distraction.
Trump’s suggestion wouldn’t just violate international law, it would violate his own long-held opposition to US wars in the Middle East and paying for other people’s problems.
It is hard to see how this fits into an “America First” agenda.
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And so, I wonder whether there is something else in play here?
If there is one prize that Netanyahu and Trump want together, almost above all else, it is a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh has swiftly responded to Trump’s comments, hardening its position and insisting on Palestinian statehood in exchange for a deal. That’s not going to happen either.
And so, are these faux lines of negotiation being drawn? Artificial problems being created to give the sides the spectre of something to climb down from?
Trump’s comments were so unexpected, so outrageous, so unrealistic, that they might just be part of something bigger.
If not, if he really is serious, then there is trouble ahead. For everyone.
