At the Faena Hotel on Miami Beach, at breakfast, I overheard the conversation on the next table.
“Trump is creating instability,” one man said to the other, who disagreed.
It was a good natured but forthright debate that cut to the heart of a global divide right now about the language and actions of the world’s most powerful man.
The two men were guests at a Saudi-run investment forum taking place over the next three days here in Miami.
The Future Investment Initiative (FII) is sometimes described as ‘Davos in the desert’.
The principal conference takes place every year in Saudi Arabia. It’s run by the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund and describes itself as “an annual event bringing people together to invest in the most promising solutions”.
This Miami event is an offshoot of the Riyadh conference and it draws the very wealthiest from the world of finance, tech, innovation, politics, philanthropy and beyond.
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I recognised one of the men at breakfast as a billionaire philanthropist. I’ll protect his identity given his conversation was private. But, safe to say, Mr Trump is the talk of the conference.
The seminars over the next three days – or ‘invite-only conclaves’ as they are described – hit all the notes of the moment.
“Do states own the oceans?”, “The end of multilateralism and what it means for the world”, “How to create resilient economies for uncertain times”, and “Is a new era of US-Middle East economic cooperation dawning?” were among the topics being discussed.
That last event bills Trump’s point man/dealmaker for the Middle East (and Russia-Ukraine), Steve Witkoff as the main speaker. The moderator is Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the man who first raised the prospect of a ‘Gaza Riviera’.
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The first speaker at the event was the American president himself. Donald Trump is determined to see massive Saudi investment in America to the tune of $1trn (£794bn). In return, he is investing in Riyadh too.
Saudi Arabia, the host of this glitzy event, has emerged as a key global power broker. The Tuesday Russia-US talks were in Riyadh. The expected Trump-Putin meeting will be there too.
Since Donald Trump was last president, the kingdom has matured and emboldened its geopolitical clout. Back in his first term, Mr Trump recognised the value (literally) in Saudi Arabia.
This time, Saudi Arabia is harnessing Mr Trump’s power. They know money talks and that he likes to be kept close.
Saudi Arabia is playing a strategic geopolitical game and it’s plainly transactional.
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Essentially, it is saying “we want to invest, we want you to, but we also have our own agenda in regional diplomacy”.
On the Middle East, Saudi red lines over Gaza and the prospects of Arab diplomatic normalisation with Israel are a backstop to a total Trump-Netanyahu wipeout of the Palestinians.
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On Ukraine-Russia, the Saudis are more than happy to host as mediators. It puts them centre stage.
On Iran, they have buried the hatchet with the supreme leader and could play a key role in any new nuclear deal.
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There was a time when the diplomatic roads ran through the obvious places; Washington, London, Brussels, Berlin, Paris. Now, it’s Florida and Saudi Arabia.
Brussels, London, Berlin, Paris and even the opposition in Washington are wholly left out.
