Crypto analyst Charting Guy (@ChartingGuy) has issued a cautionary note on Dogecoin, suggesting he will sell the meme coin if certain Fibonacci retracement levels fail to break in the coming months. His statement arrives at a time when Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around $0.20, according to the shared weekly chart on TradingView, showing a steep –14.94% weekly change.
When To Sell Dogecoin?
In the attached chart, a series of key Fibonacci retracements run from 0.0 up to 1.618 at approximately $4.13. Notable lines include the 0.382 Fib around $0.1397, the 0.50 Fib just above $0.1997 (near current price), the 0.618 Fib near $0.2677, the 0.702 Fib around $0.33, the 0.786 Fib around $0.43, and the 1.0 Fib near $0.76.
Charting Guy stresses that if DOGE “comes back and hits the 0.702 or 0.786 fib over the next few months and can’t break it,” he plans to “sell majority if not all of bag.” He adds that his personal thesis calls for a major top in late April or early May, regardless of whether prices reach $0.30, $0.40, or even $1.00.
“Yes, this invalidates my bullish DOGE charts but I was going to sell whether it’s at $0.30 or $1 late April,” Charting Guy remarked. He also highlights a “key low” potentially landing in March 2026, reiterating he “can’t make that up.”
Part of this analysis involves a potential repetition of what Tony “The Bull” Severino (@tonythebullBTC) refers to as the “XRP 2021 fractal,” where XRP remained largely range-bound and failed to push to new all-time highs during its specific cycle phase.
According to Severino, “Dogecoin continues to follow the XRP 2021 fractal.” He originally drew parallels last October, warning that DOGE might “pull an XRP this cycle,” showing how XRP traded pretty much sideways at a similar point in its market cycle.
However, analyst Sun (@Sunfire1126) disagrees, arguing that Dogecoin’s movement isn’t specifically mimicking XRP. Sun notes that “most coins have done this move so far,” and cites other altcoins such as ADA and HBAR, which have both halted around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement or lower
Charting Guy responded that he remains “open to the idea of it breaking” higher but equally open to “another rejection.” Should the price fail at $0.33 (0.702 Fib) or $0.43 (0.786 Fib) by late April, he confirms his plan to exit the market.
When one user suggested he had turned outright bearish, Charting Guy clarified: “No, if you learned to read, I plan on selling end of April whether this scenario plays out and it only gets to $0.30/$0.40, or whether my bullish scenarios play out and it makes a higher high.”
The shift in tone from Charting Guy is especially notable, as only two months ago he remained largely bullish on DOGE. In early January, he highlighted a wick down to $0.26—the 0.618 Fib—calling it an ideal buying opportunity.
Back then, he believed DOGE would avoid revisiting that zone and was “finally ready” for a next leg up, with $1 as a “minimum target” and $4 as the highest. Since then, however, DOGE has stalled under $0.30, and Charting Guy now leans on Fibonacci hurdles—$0.33 and $0.43—as the deciding factors on whether he will exit his position by late April or early May.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.20.
