In a newly released investor note, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin stands to benefit significantly from the Trump administration’s push toward a weaker dollar—even if that push risks ending the dollar’s long standing role as the world’s reserve currency. The note, dated April 8, 2025 and titled “The Fallout From Trump’s Tariff Push,” analyzes how recent tariff threats and foreign-exchange maneuvers might spark greater investor interest in what Hougan calls “hard money like bitcoin and gold.”
Bitcoin Poised To Benefit From Trump’s Tariffs
According to Hougan, markets have been rattled by constant speculation over whether new trade barriers are temporary or part of a deeper structural shift in US policy. Financial figures such as AQR’s Cliff Asness and Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman have offered starkly different opinions on social media, while Anthony Pompliano of Professional Capital has posted that tariffs “can be great.”
Amid the confusion, Hougan writes that focusing on a single point of clarity helps: “The Trump administration wants a significantly weaker dollar, even if it means sacrificing the dollar’s role as the world’s sole reserve currency.” That shift, in his view, holds major implications for Bitcoin.
Hougan highlights a speech delivered by Steve Miran, chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, which was released on Monday as the “tariff tantrum” escalated. In this speech, Miran attributes America’s “persistent currency distortions” to the dollar’s reserve function, claiming it has “decimated our manufacturing sector and many working-class families and their communities.” He also says: “While it is true that demand for dollars has kept our borrowing rates low, it has also kept currency markets distorted.”
Hougan contends that a conscious drive to weaken the dollar bodes well for digital assets in both the short and long term. In the near term, he points to Bitcoin’s historically negative correlation to the US Dollar Index (DXY), a relationship that often sees Bitcoin climbing as the dollar falls.
In the longer view, he suggests that global uncertainty could accelerate a migration away from a single reserve currency and toward multiple stores of value, with Bitcoin occupying a prominent place as “a scarce, global, digital store of value that sits outside the control of any government or entity.”
Concluding the note, Hougan reminds readers of Bitwise’s end-of-year price projection: “In December, Bitwise predicted that bitcoin would end the year at $200,000. I still think that’s in play.”
In an interview with Bloomberg, Hougan further suggested that if trade uncertainty and tariffs push the US dollar lower, Bitcoin stands to gain. “When I watch all of the tariff confusion play out and what will Trump do and what will China do […] we should expect the US dollar to move lower,” he said.
“We are moving from a world of the US dollar being the sole reserve currency to a world with potentially multiple reserve currencies. Bitcoin benefits when fiat currencies go lower.” Hougan emphasized that in his view, Bitcoin is “the hedge against fiat currency debasement,” seeing the US and other major economies setting up conditions where digital assets may thrive.
Asked about Bitcoin’s peak coinciding with Inauguration Day, Hougan pointed out that even if markets reacted strongly around that time, Bitcoin’s long-term performance remains robust. He argued that “if you measure from the day of the election until today, Bitcoin has vastly outperformed gold, has outperformed stocks, outperformed bonds, [and] it’s been a phenomenal investment.”
He also stressed that more institutional investors are entering the crypto market, regulatory attitudes have evolved significantly, and “the government now owns Bitcoin and has removed a huge amount of regulatory risk.” He concluded by calling it “the best risk-adjusted moment to buy Bitcoin” he has seen, stating that “its best years are ahead of it.”
At press time, BTC traded at $76,959.
