It’s been an unusually sunny start to spring, with parts of the UK enjoying temperatures over 20C (68F) over the past few days.
But why has it been so hot – and why is it about to come to an end?
Extraordinary highs and lows
The recent spell of fine weather was brought to us courtesy of high pressure. But no ordinary high pressure; a blocking high – the result of a stratospheric warming event.
Ironically, it’s the same weather set up that brought us the Beast from the East in 2018.
This time, however, the positioning of the high pressure system brought almost cloudless skies and temperatures well above what we’d expect at this time of year.
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A blocking high pressure system, as opposed to ordinary high pressure, is one that sticks around far longer – which explains the days and days of blue skies and sunshine.
It’s notable though that the nights have been cold.
On Thursday night, Aboyne in Scotland reached a daytime high of 22.8C (73F) from an overnight minimum of -3.2C (26.2F) – a lift of 26C night to day.
And that wasn’t an isolated station – many saw these huge discrepancies between night/day temperatures. That’s quite extraordinary.
All good things come to an end
That high pressure is now sliding away to the near continent, which is opening the door to more unsettled conditions from the Atlantic.
Also from the south, with the weather over Spain and Portugal having been shockingly bad.
And, that again, is down to our prolonged period of fine weather. High pressure systems will block all incoming weather fronts, which have to go somewhere – either north or south around the high.
So, as the beautiful spring of 2025 gives way to something more familiar, unsettled conditions spread up from the south courtesy of low pressure moving up from the Bay of Biscay.
At the same time, Atlantic rain spreads in from the west introducing colder air. The two unite tonight and sweep eastward lowering our daytime temperatures by up to 10C in places.
It’s not all doom and gloom – but Europe’s weather will be ‘unsettled’
That’s not to say that we won’t have sight of the sun until the height of summer.
We’ll have some bright and sunny spells, even over the next few days, despite them looking quite unsettled.
But we’ll also have classic British skies with cloud around to a greater or lesser degree, and temperatures more suited to our usual spring climate.
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Interestingly, the Azores high, which usually stabilises the southern Europe climate for which we pay expensive air fares, is not yet established.
So those planning a holiday to Spain or Portugal don’t have the usual reassurance of warm sunshine. Indeed, northern Italy is expecting some heavy rainfall over the next few days.
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There’s also a fair signal that high pressure will return to the UK in the days after the Easter weekend.
But as conditions remain mobile, unsettled and transient, accurate long-term forecasting becomes more difficult.
Suffice to say, the next few days will be cooler, fresher and more unsettled. With the driest March on record behind us, rain will doubtless be welcome for farmers and gardeners alike.
