Well it is something, but it’s by no means everything – a ceasefire for 30 hours, not 30 days.
This feels like a diplomatic dance, rather than a military, or moral, manoeuvre.
An Easter truce – announced by Vladimir Putin on Saturday – is significant in the sense that, if it holds, it’ll be the first actual cessation of hostilities since the war began.
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And it’s significant in the sense that it’s the first actual concession made by Moscow since Donald Trump initiated peace negotiations two months ago.
But – and there’s always a “but” when it comes to the Kremlin – how much of a concession is it really? And how much difference will it make militarily?
It’s nowhere near what the White House has been asking for, and it’s nowhere near what Ukraine has previously consented to.
The American president’s first proposal was a full 30-day ceasefire. Kyiv agreed but Moscow didn’t, not without conditions.
Then there was the attempted maritime truce. Again, Moscow’s agreement came with strings attached, in the form of sanctions relief, so it never got off the ground.
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So why suddenly suggest a truce now?
America had made no secret of its growing frustration at the lack of progress in peace negotiations.
Trump threatened to “take a pass” on attempts to reach an agreement on Friday after his secretary of state said the US might “walk away”.
I don’t think that in itself would be a problem for Russia, given its military dominance. But I think it could be a problem if Trump blames Putin for the lack of progress, and then pulls the plug on their thaw in relations as well.
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So this feels like Putin is giving Trump just enough to keep him on side, without actually making any major concession.
And the way it’s being presented is interesting too – at Russia’s initiative, on humanitarian grounds, Ukraine must “follow our example”.
He’s trying to cast himself as the peacemaker in the eyes of the US president – as the one who give solutions, not problems – which appears contrary to Trump’s opinion of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
