Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $94,300 this week and is now testing a pivotal price level as short-term holders begin to realize profits and institutional interest strengthens, creating a “decision point” moment for the market.
According to a report from Glassnode on April 24, BTC’s price hike momentarily broke above the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently at $92,900.
This threshold reflects the average acquisition price of recent buyers and historically serves as a key pivot in sentiment shifts between bearish corrections and bullish recoveries. A sustained position above the STH Cost Basis has often marked the beginning of broader upward moves.
The report noted that this structure mirrors previous phases, such as mid-2024, where Bitcoin temporarily recovered above the threshold before reversing.
The recent rally has lifted the Percent Supply in Profit metric to 87.3%, compared to 82.7% when Bitcoin last traded at this price range. This indicates that nearly 5% of the total supply has transacted at lower prices since March.
This upward move in the profitability of circulating coins is typically a precursor to more euphoric conditions when the metric stabilizes above 90%. However, with the STH Cost Basis not yet fully reclaimed, Bitcoin remains at an inflection point.
Short-term holders regain profitability
A crucial development in the current market structure is the return of the STH Supply Profit/Loss Ratio to neutral territory at 1.0. This ratio represents a balance between recent purchases in profit and those in loss.
Historically, this level has acted as a ceiling during bear markets, and reclaiming it often precedes trend reversals. The STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which compares the realized sale price of coins to their cost basis, has also broken above 1.0 for the first time since February.
This indicates that recent buyers are again realizing gains and is commonly associated with healthier price trends. Whether this return to profitability catalyzes a broader move higher depends on how the market handles the next wave of realized profits.
Realized profits have accelerated sharply, now averaging $139.9 million per hour, a 17% increase from the recent $120 million per hour baseline.
According to Glassnode, the market’s ability to withstand this volume of profit realization without sharp reversals will determine whether the current move can establish a more durable uptrend.
This price action could resemble prior short-lived rallies if profit-taking leads to renewed selling pressure. A durable breakout above the STH Cost Basis, accompanied by sustained investor profitability, remains a prerequisite for validating bullish continuation.
Institutional flows and ETF demand
Meanwhile, institutional demand appears to be re-engaging. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $1.54 billion in daily net inflows during the recent rally, one of the highest single-day figures since their launch. This movement reaffirms Bitcoin’s position as the primary beneficiary of institutional capital in the current cycle.
A comparative analysis of ETF flows reveals that Ethereum (ETH) has not seen a comparable rise in demand. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows exceeding 10% of spot volume during recent upswings, while Ethereum ETF flows have remained below 1%. The divergence suggests a stronger appetite for Bitcoin among institutional investors compared to other digital assets.
Bitcoin’s recent technical and behavioral metrics depict a market at a decision point, with short-term profitability restored and institutional demand improving.
The next directional phase will be defined by whether this can be maintained under increased profit-taking pressure and against a skeptical derivatives market.
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