It was breakfast time when Nigel Farage told Sky News the Tories were “toast” after Reform UK’s victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
After a long night of drama, tension, twists and turns at the Widnes Vikings rugby league stadium, Reform UK’s candidate Sarah Pochin was declared the winner by just six votes.
Yes, six votes! A new record for a parliamentary by-election.
And that was after several checks on the ballot papers and one full recount. At first, Labour were judged to be 10 votes ahead. That was, not surprisingly, challenged by Reform UK.
Reform beats Labour by six votes; follow Politics latest
Next, it was Reform UK who were just four votes ahead. This time Labour issued a challenge and it was shortly before 6am when the result was finally declared by the High Sheriff of Cheshire, Joelle Warren, resplendent in her ceremonial costume.
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By the time she pronounced Ms Pochin the winner, Mr Farage had already staged at least two impromptu news conferences in front of the platform, delaying the declaration even more.
In fact, as so often at by-election counts, the delays before the declaration were as annoying as VAR in football. But unlike in football, they lasted for hours, not minutes.
It was at 3am that Reform UK challenged the result. That triggered a bundle recount.
Then, shortly before 4am, after Reform UK and not Labour had edged in front, acting returning officer Stephen Young ordered a total restart of the counting.
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Earlier, right from the moment the polls closed at 10pm, Reform UK sources were telling Sky News they’d won, although they acknowledged the result would be close.
One Farage ally told Sky News early on: “I think it will be within 1,000 votes, either way, but I reckon we will edge it.”
And then he added: “To use a Farageism: ‘We’ll win it by a gnat’s knob’.”
Despite the crudeness of that prediction, it proved to be accurate, though midway through the count, Labour campaigners sniffed a shock victory and a great escape.
Why did Reform pull off their victory? Rachel Reeves’ massively unpopular winter fuel payments axe was a major vote loser. Some voters were appalled by the conduct of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who brutally assaulted a constituent.
Ms Pochin, in a fluent victory speech that suggested she’ll be a competent House of Commons performer, declared that the voters of the Runcorn and Helsby constituency had had enough of Tory failures and Labour lies.
Then, in a typically ebullient Sky News interview, Mr Farage said: “Britain is broken.” He also predicted more wins for his party in local government elections later on Friday.
For Labour, there will be a huge inquest into how they came so close to holding the seat and lost by just six votes.
Many Labour MPs and party members will condemn Sir Keir Starmer for not bothering to visit the constituency to campaign for their candidate Karen Shore.
Mr Farage visited four times, including a lengthy stint on polling day. Say what you like about Mr Farage, and his opponents certainly do, he’s a tireless campaigner with a stamina that astounds even members of his inner circle.
His relentless tenacity has paid off handsomely. Other party leaders – with the notable exception of Sir Ed Davey – take note. Sir Keir sat on his hands and Kemi Badenoch was invisible too.
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And they’ve both paid the price: humiliation.
And so, after declaring the Tories are “toast”, Mr Farage announced he was heading off for a bacon sandwich.
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Last week at Prime Minister’s Questions, Sir Keir said Mr Farage would “eat the Tory party for breakfast”.
But in Runcorn and Helsby – and many other parts of the UK – he’s just eaten Labour for breakfast as well.
