Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged to a new all-time high, surpassing $124,000, only to experience a subsequent drop of 9%. This volatility has sparked widespread speculation about the current state of the bull market, the potential for an ongoing “alt season,” and whether Bitcoin has reached its peak.
In light of the current price action, market expert Miles Deutscher has shared insights on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that August may be viewed as a significant trap in the crypto market.
Two Scenarios For Bitcoin
First, Deutscher points out a significant change in market strength. Ethereum (ETH) seems to be outperforming Bitcoin in terms of both price and narrative. He claims that Bitcoin has been showing signs of structural weakness since early July.
A key factor contributing to this downturn, according to the expert’s analysis, is the diminishing influence of Strategy’s (MicroStrategy) treasury purchases, which previously fueled the cryptocurrency’s last rally.
Deutscher asserts that this decline in demand has resulted in stalling momentum for BTC, leading him to speculate that it may remain range-bound until further clarity emerges from upcoming interest rate decisions.
In his analysis, Deutscher outlines two potential scenarios for the Bitcoin price trajectory. The first possibility involves a dip to the lows around $111,000, which could coincide with Ethereum’s critical support level of $4,000.
The second scenario envisions a reclaiming of the mid-range price of $115,500, which could pave the way for renewed upward momentum.
Conversely, the narrative surrounding Ethereum continues to significantly gain traction, bolstered by an estimated $27 billion in sidelined capital poised for investment in the decentralized asset token (DAT) ecosystem.
What’s Next For Ethereum And Crypto Market?
Interestingly, ETH has recently surpassed BTC in terms of trading volume for treasury companies. Deutscher notes that this trend suggests Ethereum still has considerable room for growth relative to Bitcoin, making it a less saturated trade.
This relative strength is reflected in the performance of altcoins, which have shown resilience against Bitcoin. Unlike past corrections, where altcoins suffered significant losses, this time the altcoin market has maintained support and exhibited bullish signals.
Amid the current market reaction, macroeconomic factors have played a crucial role in price action. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policies, in light of the upcoming Jackson Hole speech, has led to a wave of de-risking among investors.
The market’s response to hot Producer Price Index (PPI) data is also highlighted as it has altered expectations regarding interest rate cuts, heightening fears of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, contributing to the recent sell-off.
Deutscher anticipates that this market behavior may lead to a “classic sell into the end of the month” pattern, particularly as September historically presents volatility for Bitcoin.
However, the expert posits that once the uncertainty dissipates, particularly following the Jackson Hole event and the subsequent rate decision next month, the market may be well-positioned for another attempt at new highs.
When writing, BTC trades at $113,000, attempting to consolidate 9% below its all-time high reached on August 14.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
