Stablecoin supply has grown to around $280 billion after the United States enacted the GENIUS Act in July.
Those two tracks, policy and distribution, frame the question in front of the market: Can supply continue to grow from $280 billion to $500 billion by late 2026?
Treasury has now opened a public comment window to develop the rulebook. The request for comment, mandated by the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, seeks input on supervision, reserves, disclosure, and illicit finance controls.
Bank trade groups are pressing lawmakers to close a perceived yield channel through exchanges, since the statute bars issuers from paying interest directly to holders. This change would shape product design and user incentives if adopted.
Per The Verge, X plans to debut X Money this year with Visa. That creates a payments on-ramp that could carry dollars over crypto settlement if stablecoins are added later, aligning mainstream UX with regulated issuance.
DefiLlama currently places the stablecoin float near $282 billion, and Sentora data shows July on-chain settlement above $1.5 trillion, a new monthly high that points to throughput at scale even before consumer distribution expands. Over the past seven days, the total stablecoin market cap has grown by $6.5 billion, which is a 2.3% overall increase.
Reserve composition links this growth path to the Treasury market. Tether’s Q2 attestation shows about $127 billion in U.S. Treasury bills and a quarterly profit of $4.9 billion, which makes stablecoin reserves a material buyer of short-dated paper.
A larger outstanding float would channel more demand to bills and repos during a period of heavy issuance, a point the Kansas City Fed explored in recent analysis of potential funding shifts.
From today’s base, reaching $500 billion by December 2026 would require about 3.7 percent compound monthly growth, a simple arithmetic bridge that helps frame scenarios without making a call on pace.
MiCA is already reshaping the European venue map. ESMA guidance pressed exchanges to transition away from non-compliant stablecoin trading pairs by the end of Q1 2025, and Binance followed by delisting those pairs for EEA users while keeping custody and conversions available.
This pushes EEA liquidity toward compliant tokens, with USDC and euro-denominated EMTs positioned for regulated distribution in that bloc.
The economics for merchants sit in the background. The Motley Fool places card processing in a band that often exceeds 2 percent for online payments, with network and processor components layered on top.
A stablecoin settlement that clears below those levels, combined with instant payouts and programmable refunds, builds a case for checkout and cross-border payouts once compliant off-ramps are embedded in wallets.
The political economy will matter. Banks warn of deposit flight if exchanges can continue to offer reward-style returns while issuers cannot, and some ask Congress to amend the statute.
Policy choices here intersect with market structure, since reserve yields flow to issuers or intermediaries and influence wallet incentives and bank participation. The Kansas City Fed notes that more tokenized cash could alter credit intermediation even as it adds a buyer to the front end.
The near term is execution. The GENIUS Act is law, the Treasury request for comment is active, X Money’s launch window is public, and MiCA timelines are in effect. The calendar now runs through rulemaking, wallet rollouts, and market plumbing, not hype.
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