The Bitcoin price action has long been used as the standard measurement of its market cycle. While price has served as a convenient benchmark, a crypto analyst argues that it may not be the most reliable tool for understanding the cycle. Instead, his analysis points to a stronger factor that could serve as a better framework for measuring Bitcoin’s market cycle.
Time Proves More Reliable Than Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin enthusiasts often focus on price as the ultimate measure of progress in a market cycle, but crypto analyst Christian Chifoi has presented a different perspective that challenges conventional thinking. In his latest analysis on X social media, Chifoi explained that focusing solely on BTC’s four-year cycle or short-term gains is like watching the market through a narrow lens. He argues that the true driver of the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is not price but time.
By examining Bitcoin’s historical movements, Chifoi emphasized that the market follows a structural rhythm that goes beyond mere price action. He noted the significance of the “SHMITA years,” pointing to 2014-2015 and 2021-2022 as pivotal moments in the cryptocurrency’s history.
By his calculations, the next major inflection is expected around 2028/2029, occurring at a 2,550-day interval. This framework places great emphasis on time as the primary variable, while price is simply a reflection that unfolds after the passage of time. In Chifoi’s view, “time > price” is the correct equation for compounding wealth over multiple cycles.
Looking ahead, the analyst sees two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s next major move. The first possibility is an early blow-off top in 2028, followed by a sharp cyclical correction. The alternative scenario mirrors the 2021 cycle, where BTC peaked early in the year, then went through a prolonged distribution phase lasting 8-10 months. While it remains uncertain which outcome will play out, Chifoi stressed that “time will show the price,” underscoring that the intermissions between cycles are just as crucial as the market tops and bottoms.
Preparing For The Next Altcoin Season
Beyond Bitcoin, Chifoi strongly emphasized the altcoin market in his analysis. The crypto analyst predicts the market could experience another explosive altcoin season in the 2028/2029 window. However, he also cautioned that the market could undergo a necessary cleansing phase before the altcoin season arrives. This shakeout period, or “intermission,” is expected to eliminate weaker projects, leaving space for stronger, more resilient altcoins to dominate the next cycle.
To prepare for this, Chifoi revealed his personal strategy of maintaining 20% of his holdings in cash while gradually building his positions further during the intermission phase. His reasoning is rooted in the same principle of prioritizing time over price when measuring the Bitcoin market cycle. By positioning early, the market expert believes that investors could maximize their exposure to the next major cycle without exhausting themselves in short-term market chases.
