Bitcoin is trading at a critical level after a quiet weekend, with bulls managing to defend key supports but struggling to generate fresh upside momentum. The market remains tense as investors await the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for this Wednesday. A potential 25-basis-point cut is widely anticipated, which many see as a sign of a gradual pivot rather than an aggressive measure. Such a move could spark optimism across risk assets, including crypto, as it signals a more supportive monetary environment without triggering fears of economic distress.
For Bitcoin, the focus is on whether it can sustain its position above critical price levels while macroeconomic factors shape broader sentiment. Data from CryptoQuant shows that BTC is increasingly shifting into “HODL mode,” with supply moving off exchanges and into long-term storage. This pattern suggests that conviction-driven holders are accumulating rather than selling, reducing available liquidity on the market.
The combination of macro catalysts and strengthening onchain fundamentals sets the stage for a pivotal week. If Bitcoin holds its ground through the Fed’s announcement, the groundwork could be laid for renewed momentum once volatility surrounding the decision begins to fade.
Bitcoin Spot Volumes Halve
Bitcoin enters a decisive week with a striking shift in market behavior. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights showing that in January 2025, spot trading volumes peaked at $636 billion, but by August, that figure had nearly halved to $322 billion. This sharp decline in trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEXs) underscores a market in transition, with participants moving away from active speculation and into what Adler describes as “HODL mode.”
The drop in volumes reflects a broader cooling of short-term trading enthusiasm. Investors appear less inclined to chase rapid price moves, instead opting for long-term accumulation strategies. Exchange data supports this, showing consistent outflows as Bitcoin is withdrawn into private wallets and cold storage. Such behavior indicates a growing conviction that BTC’s value lies in its long-term potential rather than short-term trading gains.
For Bitcoin, the combination of halving spot activity and mounting anticipation for the Fed’s move creates a tense equilibrium. On one hand, reduced selling pressure from sidelined traders supports price stability. On the other hand, thin liquidity raises the risk of sharper swings once volatility returns. As Bitcoin holds near critical levels, the coming days may determine whether this HODL-driven environment provides the foundation for resilience—or if macro forces spark a more dramatic revaluation across the crypto market.
Technical Details: Holding Key Demand
Bitcoin is currently trading near $114,987, showing signs of consolidation after its recent bounce from early September lows around $110,000. The daily chart highlights that BTC has reclaimed both the 50-day SMA at $114,399 and the 100-day SMA at $112,681, strengthening the short-term bullish outlook. These moving averages now serve as immediate support levels, indicating that buyers are regaining momentum.
The key resistance remains at $116,000–$117,000, where BTC has struggled to establish a sustained breakout. A successful close above this zone would clear the path toward retesting the cycle high at $123,217. This level has been a major barrier since July and will be the defining hurdle for bulls in the weeks ahead.
On the downside, support is around $112,500, aligning with the 100-day SMA. A break below this level could reopen the risk of a retest of $110,000, which has acted as a critical floor. The 200-day SMA at $102,652 remains the ultimate safety net in case of deeper corrections.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
