Andy Burnham would beat Sir Keir Starmer among Labour members by two to one if there were a leadership contest today, an exclusive poll for Sky News reveals.
A poll of 704 Labour members taken a week ago by YouGov found that 62% would back Mr Burnham, and 29% would back Sir Keir. Just 9% don’t know or would not vote.
Mr Burnham has claimed some Labour MPs are asking him to stand for the leadership, and has used this conference to set out his stall, though there is not an obvious route for him to return to Parliament.
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If returned to the Commons, he would have to resign as Manchester Metro Mayor, with a Reform UK replacement in prime position to win the mayoralty.
The poll reveals that around a third of Labour members polled no longer think that Sir Keir is a good prime minister, and would rather he did not fight the next election. Some 33% say he is doing a bad job, compared with 63% who think he is doing a good job.
Even more – 37% – say Sir Keir should not take the party into the next election, while 53% say he should and 10% don’t know. People are more likely to say that Labour is doing a good job than Sir Keir.
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Mr Burnham is the favourite to succeed him by a long distance – the top pick of 54% of members.
Next is Angela Rayner, the now-sacked deputy leader (10%), then Health Secretary Wes Streeting on 7%. Ex-leader, now energy secretary, Ed Miliband and foreign secretary Yvette Cooper are on 6%, and new home secretary Shabana Mahmood is on 2%.
Mr Burnham comfortably beats all in a final round of voting, according to the poll.
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In the event that Mr Burnham was unable to stand, YouGov polled a number of head-to-head races. Wes Streeting beats Shabana Mahmood and Ed Miliband, but would lose to Angela Rayner and Yvette Cooper. Ms Mahmood would lose to Mr Miliband and Ms Cooper. And Ms Cooper would beat Mr Miliband.
The poll also examined attitudes to the deputy leadership contest.
The poll found 35% would back Lucy Powell and 28% would back Bridget Phillipson, while 30% do not know and 5% will not vote. Excluding ‘don’t know’, this suggests Ms Powell is ahead of Ms Phillipson with 56% to 44% – a closer margin than some other pollsters.
Broadly, members who back Ms Powell are less likely to support Sir Keir.
The poll makes tough reading for Angela Rayner – 60% said she was right to resign, against 34% who said it was the wrong decision.
