On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows
In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network.
In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to the value being shifted around on the blockchain.
In the context of the current topic, the version of the indicator that’s of interest is the one specifically for short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their Bitcoin during the past 155 days.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT for the STHs over the last few years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Value RVT has witnessed a decline recently, implying the investors have been realizing a lower amount of profit/loss compared to the volume.
The metric’s recent decline has been so drastic that it has taken its value near cyclical lows. Such a trend suggests the BTC network is currently observing most of its coins moving at or near break-even.
“Historically, such resets often align with periods of market detox, helping build a foundation for more durable recoveries,” explains the analytics firm. From the chart, it’s visible that the market saw similar STH Realized Value RVT values during the mid-2024 and early-2025 lows.
In 2023, however, the indicator had to sink even lower before Bitcoin regained its footing. It now remains to be seen whether the latest low levels of STH Realized Value RVT mean the cryptocurrency has already bottomed, or if the metric will have to go further lower.
Another healthy development for BTC could perhaps be the reversal in its market cap dominance, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post.
From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin dominance declined to 57% earlier, but it has since seen a rebound back to 59%. “This mean reversion suggests a healthier market structure, as BTC-led rallies have historically proven more sustainable than those driven by altcoins,” notes the analytics firm.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,000, up 3% over the last week.
