The prison population in England and Wales will hit 100,000 a year later than previously expected, the latest figures show.
According to Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data published on Thursday, the number of prisoners in the two countries’ jails will reach between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030. The central estimate, or most likely figure, is 100,600.
It means the total prison population will reach six figures a year later than projected last year, when a central figure of 100,800 was forecast for March 2029.
To explain the suggested increase, the ministry pointed to a continued rise in police charges and prosecutions, more cases coming to court and increases in the numbers of offenders recalled to custody.
But the department has now said the prison population will be around 2,400 lower in September 2028 than previously thought.
This is down to the impact of recent policy changes, including the emergency measure to free some criminals at an earlier point in their sentence, the ministry said.
Thousands of prisoners have been released from jail as part of efforts to tackle overcrowding since last September.
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Nearly 40,000 criminals in England and Wales were freed under the government’s early release scheme by the end of June this year, figures show.
At the start of this month, there were 87,063 prisoners in England and Wales – 1,458 fewer than September 2024’s record high of 88,521.
The MoJ admitted that while its projections represent “the best available evidence”, there is “considerable uncertainty around the impact of various key factors”.
“Notably, future crime mix and police charging activity will have a considerable impact on the volume and composition of cases entering the criminal courts,” it said.
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The impact of the Sentencing Bill currently going through parliament, aimed at ending the prison capacity crisis in the long term, is not reflected in the projection because it has not yet come into force.
It includes plans for a scheme which would see prisoners who behave well possibly being freed earlier, while those who break the rules could serve longer sentences.
The reforms are expected to come into force next year, while ministers have also vowed to build 14,000 new prison places by 2031.
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The pressure on prisons has been laid bare by a string of high-profile mistaken releases, most notably that of Hadush Kebatu, the now-deported migrant whose arrest for sexual assault sparked protests over the summer in Epping, Essex.
Last month, Justice Secretary David Lammy admitted there was a “mountain to climb” to tackle the crisis in the prison system after another high-profile search for two other prisoners released by mistake.
