Donald Trump, who has long called climate change as a “hoax”, is to waste no time in his plans to strip nature protections, ban wind turbines and drain every last drop of oil from US soil.
Some have likened him to a “wrecking ball” for climate action.
But perhaps things won’t be as bad as they fear.
Yes, he has vowed to stop new “windmills” – his disdaining term for wind turbines – from being built offshore “from day one”, despite it being among the cheapest energy sources in the US.
And, yes, he wants to gut environmental rules, roll back Joe Biden‘s landmark green legislation that unleashed billions of clean energy incentives (the Inflation Reduction Act or IRA), and unplug all the stops on US “liquid gold” – oil.
His actions will reverberate well beyond US borders, too.
Team MAGA is also expected to wrench America out of the landmark Paris Agreement once again, which he says “kills the American economy”.
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It’s the world’s biggest global climate treaty, which has helped drastically lower global warming, and which Mr Biden swiftly re-joined.
That means the second-biggest climate polluter would disappear from the global climate fight, just as we’re being warned how critical the next few years are for getting climate change under control.
This translates to more violent floods and fires, quite likely in the US itself.
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America is not a climate saint
Mr Trump says the measures will “cut the price of energy and electricity in half within 12 months” and achieve US “energy dominance”.
In fact, America already dominates: it’s the biggest producer of both oil and gas in the world, reaching record levels of oil under Mr Biden.
For America was no climate saint to begin with. The average American guzzles more energy and emits more greenhouse gases than anyone in most other countries, including China and Russia.
And demand is booming, with the grid racing to keep up with energy-hungry AI data centres.
Oil production reached record levels under Mr Biden, who also funded an intensely polluting war in Gaza. It has long been stingy with climate funding for developing nations and dragged its heels on targets to cut emissions.
One in four members (23%) of Congress – all Republicans – deny humans are to blame for current climate changes, according to research by the Center for American Progress.
So America’s climate problems are bigger than Mr Trump, though he is a product of them, and certainly won’t help.
America’s loss could be another’s gain
If he does withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, almost 200 others remain committed, for now at least. This was tested at the COP29 climate summit in November, which many warned would be overshadowed by the recent US election.
Weak though the outcome was, the process survived.
Governments I spoke to there said they had been here before, and are better prepared for an absent US this time around.
So, too, are other leaders around the States.
The US Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of governors representing half the population, are still aiming to meet Mr Biden’s goal of cutting emissions by 61%, which he rushed through just before Trump’s inauguration.
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“While the US administration retreats, states, cities and businesses across the US will continue driving climate action forward,” according to Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute thinktank.
“Make no mistake, America will still be very much in the global fight against climate change.”
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On IRA, firstly a lot of the cash has already been distributed, and much to Republican states, where officials might fight back if he tries to repeal it.
If he does manage to repeal some or all of the incentives, it will free up private investment that would have been attracted by them for the green projects in more ambitious countries like Mexico.
“America’s loss could be somebody else’s gain,” says Tim Sahey, from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University.
On drilling, regional pushback and a lengthy permitting system could make it harder for him to, as he puts it, “drill, baby, drill”, than he’d like.
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A brave face
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy is not only under way but “unstoppable”, say proponents like Ed Miliband, the UK’s energy secretary.
Look at China, the world’s biggest emitter, which is building more wind and solar power than the rest of the world combined.
Perhaps the climate movement is just putting a brave face on it when it says America is still in the fight.
Donald Trump’s impact on the global climate efforts will be felt for years.
But the world under Mr Trump is also unpredictable and inconsistent, and in that, lies their hope.
