Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down at least a dozen Republican holdouts on the budget blueprint he wants to put on the House floor in the coming days — and he can only afford to lose one member and still approve the resolution along party lines.
Johnson and his whip team are using the current week-long recess to ramp up engagement with undecided Republicans, including seven members — if not more — who have raised serious concerns about deep cuts to Medicaid in the House GOP budget resolution. Several other members are wary of a move to raise the debt limit as part of the plan.
In private meetings and calls with these members over the last few days, Republican leaders have argued that adopting the budget blueprint is simply the first step toward being able to craft the massive legislative package to enact President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda through the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process.
According to four people granted anonymity to share private conversations, GOP leaders are assuring members they can still debate the specifics of that package in the weeks ahead — appealing to them not to stand in the way of delivering Trump’s biggest priorities.
But the fiscal blueprint adopted by the House Budget Committee last week, to which GOP leaders negotiated a last-minute addition to appease hard-liners, would now require panels to reach a new target of $2 trillion in spending cuts to pay for the bill. The House Energy and Commerce Committee will need to cut $880 billion from programs under its purview, including Medicaid.
Many lawmakers aren’t convinced their colleagues will be able to achieve necessary savings without “significantly cutting” the safety net program, according to two Republicans aware of internal party conversations. The GOP plan to enact work requirements for Medicaid would only net about $100 billion in savings over 10 years.
The vulnerable incumbents wary of slashing Medicaid services include Reps. David Valadao of California, Nicole Malliotakis of New York, Don Bacon of Nebraska, Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania and others from redder districts. They were generally blindsided by the deeper level of proposed cuts, a Republican said, as that possibility never came up in earlier discussions with GOP leaders.
Now, the members want GOP leaders to explain how they’re going to cut $880 billion across Energy and Commerce programs “and not undermine the basic care provided by Medicaid as the President requested,” said another Republican aware of conversations.
Leaders are attending to concerns from other corners of their conference, too — for instance, a slice of lawmakers in high tax blue states remain wary that the budget plan doesn’t include enough room to increase the cap on a key deduction for state and local taxes in blue states.
The House GOP whip team on Monday evening called Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee, along with several other remaining holdouts, to stave off opposition based on leadership’s plans to use the reconciliation bill to raise the debt limit, according to the four people familiar with the conversations. GOP leaders have said debt limit concerns among members have softened in recent weeks.
Burchett and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who also opposes raising the debt ceiling, want even deeper spending cuts across the board. Burchett is still undecided on the resolution and Massie has privately told other Republicans that he’s a “no” — though he’s pushing to include in the final bill his legislation that exempts Social Security benefits from income taxes and some Republicans feel he could be persuaded.
GOP leaders are also watching Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, who has also pressed for more spending cuts. Rep. Kat Cammack of Florida has also pushed for the reconciliation package to include her “REINS Act” that would curtail federal rule-making.
Another complication to the House GOP whip operation is that Senate Republicans are speeding ahead this week to adopt their own budget resolution. For the time being, however, fiscal hard-liners in the House appear to be standing by their promise to support Johnson’s plan on the floor rather than jump ship for the Senate’s alternative.
Some White House officials and senior House GOP aides are even quietly hoping that the added pressure of Senate action forces House Republicans to fall in line on their side of the Capitol, according to two people aware of party strategy. Trump has yet to call key holdouts in order to secure their support.
