Republicans are facing a trifecta of major challenges this week on President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, his trade war escalation and the biggest test of the party’s political staying power since November. Here’s a rundown of what’s coming.
News on Trump’s legislative wish list: Senate Republicans will move as soon as Wednesday to start advancing the budget plan Congress has to approve to enact Trump’s tax cuts, border agenda and energy policies.
Senate Republicans are aiming to adopt a budget resolution before leaving for the weekend. A vote-a-rama could start as early as Thursday.
Before they get there, senators expect to receive a decision from the Senate parliamentarian as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday on whether they can use an accounting maneuver known as current policy baseline, which would allow them to treat an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts as not costing anything. The Senate GOP needs the parliamentarian to make that call before moving ahead.
On the sidelines, the “Big Six” tax negotiators — Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo and Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith — are set to meet Tuesday. Senate Finance Republicans will meet ahead of time on Monday night. House Ways and Means Republicans will gather Thursday for an all-day session to continue hashing out the tax bill.
Even if Republicans succeed in nailing down a budget blueprint before Easter, they’re still punting key fights over how to pay for Trump’s plans. Trump’s push for action now and unity later has the House and Senate GOP moving ahead with budget numbers that don’t match up — meaning the chambers’ committees aren’t aligned on deficit reduction targets. House committees will be asked to cut at least $2 trillion, while Senate committees might be directed to find a minimum of a few billion dollars.
Tariff tensions: Trump is threatening to ratchet up tariffs Wednesday — what he’s calling “Liberation Day” — and Hill Republicans are scrambling to shield their states from the impacts. GOP lawmakers are coordinating with industry groups to push for exemptions.
What makes it harder for Republicans is that no one but Trump is fully certain what these tariffs will look like. That’s causing unease among White House officials and Trump’s allies. Senate Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Republican discomfort around the issue by forcing a vote aimed at blocking Trump’s Canada tariffs as soon as Tuesday.
One of the reasons Trump has been pushing to increase the scope of the tariffs is to be able to claim hundreds of billions of dollars in more revenue that he believes will pay for a large chunk of his massive domestic policy bill, said three people with direct knowledge. Some Republicans are anxious about this move, arguing it’s a clear-cut budget gimmick and that tariffs likely won’t drive that much revenue.
Trump’s political test: Two special elections are on tap Tuesday in Florida to replace former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz. Republican Randy Fine’s bid to succeed Waltz in the state’s deep-red 6th District has been a huge headache for the GOP, with the party fearing the race will be closer than expected. As CNN reported last week, NRCC chief Rep. Richard Hudson and Majority Whip Tom Emmer warned Fine to “get his shit together.”
Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Benjamin Guggenheim contributed to this report.
