Movement within the long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders cohorts suggests the market is shifting into a new phase of the BTC halving cycle.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle, anchored around its halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this larger framework, traders have come to expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes.
Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.
Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops.
