Long-range Taurus missiles – long prized by Ukraine – were not mentioned by Chancellor Friedrich Merz as he announced new support for Kyiv on Wednesday. But that does not mean they will not soon be aimed at Russian targets.
After meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the German leader said the two countries would develop joint production of long-range missiles.
He did not comment on the potential supply of Taurus, an advanced missile currently used by Germany that has a longer range than other missiles donated by Ukraine’s allies.
So what’s going on?
Is Germany sending Taurus missiles?
It is unclear, and it might remain that way for some time.
Olaf Scholz, who was chancellor of Germany until earlier this year, repeatedly vetoed the idea of sending Taurus missiles to Kyiv, apparently out of a wish to avoid escalation with Moscow.
His successor Mr Merz previously said that decision should be reversed, and his comments on Ukrainian long-range strikes earlier this week sparked discussion on whether it was now time for Taurus.
Earlier this month, he said Germany would stop publishing full details of military aid to Ukraine, in order to achieve “strategic ambiguity”.
So it is likely any decision on the missiles would not be immediately made public, and any supply of Taurus would not be known until they were seen in combat.
Tech specs: What’s the range of Taurus missiles?
The Taurus KEPD-350 is a cruise missile that is launched in the air from fighter aircraft for precision strikes against hardened and high-value targets, like bunkers and bridges.
“The missile is smart,” Dr Marina Miron, an expert in war studies at King’s College London, told Sky News. “It knows when it penetrates the earth and when it penetrates the bunker.”
This, she says, allows the 1,400kg missile to delay its formidable explosion until it has reached the buried or reinforced target.
The Taurus has a range of more than 310 miles (500km), according to manufacturer MBDA, can breach dense air defences and navigate without permanent GPS, which is very useful in an era of GPS jamming.
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Why Ukraine wants Taurus missiles
The Taurus has a longer range than the British-French Storm Shadow and the ATACMS missiles supplied by America, so it would potentially enable Ukraine to strike targets that Russia currently thinks are safe from missiles.
There is also the issue of supply.
“In the case of ATACMS and Storm Shadow we don’t know how many – if any – are left,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the RUSI thinktank.
Likely targets for Taurus would be anything Russia is likely to have protected with reinforced concrete – like command posts and missile storage facilities, Dr Sidharth Kaushal, an expert in sea power also from RUSI, said.
However, the Taurus’s 310-mile range may be constrained by the need to keep Ukrainian fighter jets out of reach of Russian air defences when firing.
But Dr Kaushal added: “As an air-launched missile, the range it can likely target will be constrained by the threat the Russian air defence network poses to the launching aircraft.”
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Crimea bridge killer?
Inevitably, discussion of Taurus missiles in the context of Ukraine also resurrects discussion of the Kerch Bridge.
Connecting mainland Russia with occupied Crimea, the 11-mile bridge is both a logistics route for Russian supplies and a prized accomplishment for President Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine has already attempted to destroy it more than once, without fully succeeding.
“I think at this stage it’s more symbolic than militarily significant,” says Dr Miron.
She added: “It will take more than one Taurus missile to damage it in order to make it unusable.”
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Why might Germany (and NATO) be hesitant to send Taurus missiles?
There may be still some hesitancy around supplying Taurus to Ukraine.
Along with fears, from the likes of former chancellor Scholz, of Germany being drawn into the war, there is also the fact that the debate over their use has been going on for a long time.
“The Russians have been preparing for this for a year now,” says Dr Miron. “They’ve had a year to prepare their electronic systems.”
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She said that while Taurus missiles might help Ukraine on an operational (not strategic) level, “it’s not going to end the war”.
What is more, the long-range rockets are currently used by the German army – and therefore NATO.
Ukraine using them against Russia would give Moscow a chance to reverse engineer the missiles to see how they work, and develop countermeasures against them, Dr Miron added.
