Bitcoin is holding strong above the $104,000 mark, showing resilience despite recent volatility and growing macroeconomic uncertainty. After weeks of back-and-forth price action, BTC appears to be consolidating in preparation for a decisive move. While some analysts are calling for a deeper correction, others remain bullish, forecasting a new all-time high in the coming weeks as market momentum builds.
Investor sentiment is split, with the bond market and global trade tensions adding pressure to risk assets. However, on-chain data provides a more optimistic outlook. According to CryptoQuant, the current HODL level—the proportion of Bitcoin being held without moving—is at its highest point in the past two years. This indicates that long-term holders remain confident, choosing to accumulate or stay sidelined rather than sell.
Such elevated HODL behavior often precedes major upward price moves, as supply tightens and buying pressure increases. With Bitcoin’s fundamentals still strong and volatility gradually returning, all eyes are on key resistance levels around $109,000 and support near $103,600 to determine BTC’s next major direction. Whether the market opts for a breakout or a pullback, the current setup suggests that the coming weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Bitcoin Faces Crucial Test Amid Global Tensions and Record HODL Levels
Bitcoin is trading at a critical level as global tensions rise and macroeconomic uncertainty shapes the broader financial landscape. With US–China trade disputes intensifying and the bond market flashing warning signs, traditional and crypto markets alike are on edge. Yet, Bitcoin continues to show resilience, holding above $104,000 as investors await a decisive move. Despite the strength, a breakout above the $112,000 all-time high remains crucial to confirm the continuation of the bullish structure.
Analysts remain split. Some see the current consolidation as a healthy pause before another leg up, while others point to growing volatility and fading retail demand as signs of an incoming correction. Still, one key metric suggests underlying strength.
According to top analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Exchange Flows to Network Activity Ratio is highlighting a powerful on-chain signal: the current HODL level is at its highest point in the past two years. This ratio compares BTC movements on exchanges to overall blockchain activity and, when low, indicates that fewer coins are being sent to exchanges for selling. The elevated HODL behavior signals that long-term holders are committed, reducing circulating supply and potentially setting the stage for a supply-driven breakout.
Historically, such conditions have preceded major rallies, especially when combined with rising network activity and reduced exchange inflows. While external risks remain and short-term sentiment appears cautious, this long-term holding trend could help support higher prices if macroeconomic conditions stabilize. For now, Bitcoin remains poised between potential breakout and retrace, with the next few weeks likely to define its medium-term direction.
BTC Price Analysis: Tight Range Signals Incoming Volatility
Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,892 on the 4-hour chart, caught in a tightening range between key support at $103,600 and resistance at $109,300. After failing to hold above $110K in late May, BTC has pulled back and now hovers just above the 200 SMA, which aligns closely with the $103,600 support zone, making this level a critical area to defend.
The 34 EMA and 50 SMA are starting to flatten, indicating a lack of clear trend direction, while the 100 and 200 SMAs are acting as dynamic support zones. The price is now compressing between the short- and long-term moving averages, suggesting a buildup before a breakout. A decisive move above $106,000 would signal renewed bullish momentum and likely lead to another test of the $109,300 resistance. On the flip side, a breakdown below $103,600 could trigger a sharper retracement.
Volume has been relatively low during this consolidation, a common sign that a larger move is brewing. Traders should watch for a spike in volume to confirm the next direction. For now, BTC remains range-bound, and the next few sessions will likely define whether bulls regain control or bears take over short-term momentum.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
