Israel’s offensive is not just aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but also its ability to retaliate, according to analysts.
A barrage of Israeli airstrikes and drones hit Iranian nuclear facilities as well as military targets in the early hours of Friday morning, followed by subsequent waves in an operation that the Israeli prime minister warned “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat”.
Israel-Iran latest: Iran retaliates against airstrikes
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said Iran’s top three military chiefs, as well as other commanders, had been killed – a serious blow to the Iranian regime, as these men would have been key in planning Iran’s response.
“The breadth and scale of these strikes – against senior Iranian officials and other military facilities in addition to nuclear sites – suggest this operation is intended to not just dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also cripple any potential military response and even to destabilise the regime,” said Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services (RUSI) thinktank.
The most significant target so far is the country’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz.
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An Israeli military spokesman said “significant damage” had been caused at Natanz, while the UN’s nuclear watchdog confirmed it had been struck.
Iran’s other main nuclear enrichment site at Fordow has not yet been struck.
Analysts say for Israel to succeed in setting back Iranian nuclear ambitions, it would need to destroy the infrastructure at Fordow too.
However, it is built into a mountain and is approximately 80 to 90 metres underground.
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Israel would need to launch multiple raids to have an effect, or receive support from US aircraft that carry bigger bombs.
Analysts have questioned whether Israel will be able to set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions as much as it wants through military means alone, and may end up having the opposite effect.
Read more: Why did Israel attack Iran?
Iranian nuclear sites are dispersed across the country, with the most sensitive locations, such as a vast nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow, contained in bunkers built deep underground.
Killing nuclear scientists – also part of the Israeli operation – will also not remove the country’s nuclear knowledge, which can be rebuilt.
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Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow on proliferation and nuclear policy at RUSI, warned that the offensive may harden Tehran’s resolve to develop nuclear weapons.
“I think that is a real threat,” she said.
The Iranian regime has always insisted its nuclear programme is purely for civilian use.
As well as targeting nuclear sites, Israel has also gone after the military commanders who would direct Iran’s anticipated retaliation.
This includes Iran’s military chief, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Hossein Salami.
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Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, wrote on social media: “Most of Iran’s senior military leadership -and the individuals who would have planned the retaliation for this attack – are dead.”
Israel also claims to have struck Iranian air defences and taken out dozens of radars and missile launchers, again impacting on Iran’s ability to retaliate.
Whether or not this tactic has been effective will soon become clear as Iran readies its response.
Israel says the Iranians have so far launched about 100 attack drones that its forces are working to intercept.
Watch a special programme on Israel’s attack on Iran on The World with Yalda Hakim on Sky News tonight at 7pm.
