When Washington first woke up to a government shutdown earlier this month, there was one hope for a quick exit: A bipartisan clutch of rank-and-file senators were at least talking.
There was reason for optimism. Past groups had evolved into “gangs” that had figured out some of Capitol Hill’s most intractable disputes.
But that’s not the trajectory so far. Three weeks into the shutdown, there are no signs that the conversations are anywhere close to generating a solution to what is now the second-longest shutdown in U.S. history.
“You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who has been involved in the conversations that sprang up as Congress barreled over the funding cliff in early October but have since stalled. “I don’t see that there’s a path forward at this point.”
Senators don’t even agree on whether there are still bipartisan talks taking place at all, let alone on what it would take to break the stalemate. If they agree on anything, it’s that they aren’t a gang, and they aren’t negotiating.
It’s a stark shift from early 2018, when a Senate gang helped negotiate a deal to end a short shutdown during President Donald Trump’s first term. They built on that with a series of bipartisan deals — including multiple coronavirus relief bills and an infrastructure agreement under Trump’s successor, Joe Biden.
But the Senate has changed dramatically since then. Dealmaking senators such as Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) have retired, hollowing out the corps of lawmakers with any experience crossing the aisle.
The personnel drain has been exacerbated by the sharp battle lines that have been drawn by party leaders as well as deep frustration with an administration that has taken a sledgehammer to a government funding process that once provided a basic framework for bipartisanship inside the Senate.
“Right now … there’s not enough trust between us,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who has a long history of negotiating with Republicans.
He and others noted the challenges for the would-be negotiators are vast and involve figuring out how to bridge sweeping policy and political divides.
The shutdown impasse isn’t only about government spending; some Democrats have demanded that any off-ramp deal include an extension of key Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year — potentially leaving millions uninsured, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
Democrats say they want a bipartisan negotiation on extending the credits, while Republicans say they won’t negotiate while the government is closed down. None of the would-be dealmakers have strayed from those positions set out by their respective party leaders.
The Senate’s bipartisan talks have instead focused on what would happen after the government reopens. Lawmakers involved have floated several ideas, including the possibility of having a vote to reopen the government followed immediately by a vote on an extension of the insurance subsidies.
But that hasn’t been enough to get Democrats to bite. Asked Tuesday if lawmakers were close to finding a path out of the shutdown, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) replied dryly, “Not that I have seen.”
Asked why senators haven’t broken out the “talking stick” — the device the 2018 shutdown-solving group used to manage their bipartisan meetings — Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a perennial gang member, argued that there was little incentive in either party to break ranks at the moment.
“Both sides think there is political advantage in sticking with the positions that they have,” she added.
The senators aren’t completely throwing in the towel, and some of their colleagues still see the sputtering bipartisan talks as the best path out of the shutdown. But there are simmering flashes of frustration from Shaheen and others in the group that what is needed is hands-on involvement from top leaders to break the stalemate — including from Trump.
“I think he’s an important part of it,” Murkowski said.
Senators believe they are nearing a crucial juncture: Trump will leave Friday for a weeklong trip to Asia, and there’s some private grumbling on Capitol Hill that he’s been too deeply engaged in foreign affairs as the country lumbers deeper into the shutdown. Coming to a deal to end it will be difficult as long as he is out of the country, they think.
But most Republicans don’t believe Trump should come to the table until after the government is reopened — and GOP senators left a lunch with the president at the White House Tuesday pledging to remain unified behind their funding strategy. Democrats, meanwhile, have been emboldened by the “No Kings” rallies against the Trump administration over the weekend as well as encouraging polling that appears to back up their shutdown stance.
Even as senators downplay hopes that a bipartisan gang will ride to the rescue, the rank-and-file group is taking care to keep lines of communication open given the freeze-out between Democratic leaders and the White House. A Tuesday request to Trump from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for a meeting was quickly swatted away by the White House, in keeping with the wishes of top GOP leaders.
Some cross-aisle outreach continued this week, according to three people familiar with the matter granted anonymity to disclose private discussions. And while there wasn’t much public progress to show for it, Shaheen said Tuesday it hasn’t been a total wash. But, she added, they needed help from higher powers.
“I think people have moved on both sides,” she said, but it was essential that “the leaders in both houses and both sides sit down with the president and negotiate an end to the shutdown. I think that’s in everyone’s interest.”
